The
Prophetic Accuracy of the Bible
by
Michael Hite
Introduction
Bible prophecy is an often misunderstood subject. With today’s
interest in psychics and mysticism, many believe that prophecies are
vague, unrelated statements that could be interpreted to mean almost
anything the reader wants them to mean. If God is all knowing, then
it stands to reason that a book of His “inspired” words
might give us a glimpse of this knowledge. We should be able to find
some indication that He, as God, really does know all things. Even those
things that have not occurred yet. The Bible itself sets up the test.
“Declare the things that are going
to come afterward, That we may know that you are gods…”
Isaiah 41:23, NASB.
We are going to look at a small sampling of the prophecies written in
the Bible. We will not deal with any of the over 300 prophecies in the
Old Testament concerning Christ. Since these are in most cases only
verifiable by the Bible accounts, that is the Bible proving itself true,
and that would not give us an objective view. The prophecies discussed
in this lesson are all very specific and are all historically and archaeologically
verifiable.
We will also endeaver to demonstrate statistically the probabilities
of these prophecies coming true if they were merely from man’s
own knowledge and imagination. The probabilities given were calculated
by Professor Peter W. Stoner, Past Chairman of the Department of Math
and Astronomy, Pasadena City College, California and later Chairman
of Science, Westmont College in Santa Barbara and have been approved
by the American Scientific Affiliation.
The probabilities discussed are calculated using basic college algebra.
For example, when figuring total probability or odds, the calculations
is made this way. If it is determined that 1 in 10 men are bald, AND
1 in 100 men have lost a finger…the probability or odds of finding
a man that is both bald AND has lost a finger would be 1 in 1000 (10x100).
To emphasize the significance of this material, in all cases we will
reduce the odds to 1 in 2 for comparison purposes. This
means that we are willing, for calculation purposes, to concede that
in a random guess, the writer would guess correctly once out of every
two guesses. (Clearly, this level of accuracy has never been
accomplished by mere guesswork.)
The
Destruction of Tyre
Ezekiel 26:3-16 — Date: 590 B.C.
“3 therefore, thus says the Lord
GOD, 'Behold, I am against you, O Tyre, and I
will bring up many nations against you,
as the sea brings up its waves. 4 'And they will destroy the walls of
Tyre and break down her towers; and I
will scrape her debris from her and make her a bare rock.
5 'She will be a place for the
spreading of nets in the midst of
the sea, for I have spoken,' declares the Lord GOD, 'and she will become
spoil for the nations. 6 'Also her daughters who are on the mainland
will be slain by the sword, and they will know that I am the LORD.'"
7 For thus says the Lord GOD, "Behold, I
will bring upon Tyre from the north
Nebuchadnezzar
king of Babylon, king of kings, with horses, chariots, cavalry, and
a great army. 8 "He will slay your daughters on the mainland with
the sword; and he will make siege walls against you, cast up a mound
against you, and raise up a large shield against you. 9 "And the
blow of his battering rams he will direct against your walls, and with
his axes he will break down your towers. 10 "Because of the multitude
of his horses, the dust raised by them will cover you; your walls will
shake at the noise of cavalry and wagons and chariots, when he enters
your gates as men enter a city that is breached. 11 "With the hoofs
of his horses he will trample all your streets. He will slay your people
with the sword; and your strong pillars will come down to the ground.
12 "Also they will make a spoil of your riches and a prey of your
merchandise, break down your walls and destroy your pleasant houses,
and throw your stones and your
timbers and your debris into the water.
13 "So I will silence the sound of your songs, and the sound of
your harps will be heard no more. 14 "And I
will make you a bare rock; you will be a place for the spreading of
nets. You
will be built no more, for I the
LORD have spoken," declares the Lord GOD. 15 Thus says the Lord
GOD to Tyre, "Shall not the coastlands shake at the sound of your
fall when the wounded groan, when the slaughter occurs in your midst?
16 "Then all the princes
of the sea will go down from their thrones, remove their robes, and
strip off their embroidered garments. They
will clothe themselves with trembling;
they will sit on the ground, tremble every moment, and be appalled at
you.” Ezekiel 26:3-16, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Nebuchadnezzar would take the city (vs.7) |
1
in 3 |
1
in 2 |
2)
Other nations would be involved in the
destruction of the city (vs.3) |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
The city would be made flat like the top of a rock (vs.4,14) |
1
in 500 |
1
in 2 |
| 4)
It is to become a place for the spreading of nets (vs.5,14) |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 5)
Its stones and timbers are to be laid in the sea (vs.12) |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
6)
Other cities are to fear greatly at the
fall of the city (vs.16) |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 7)
The city will never be rebuilt (vs.14) |
1
in 20 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 7 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 75,000,000 |
1
in 128 |
Results
Tyre was a city in the northern coast of Palestine, inhabited by Phoenicians.
586 BC. — Nebuchadnezzar laid seige to the city, but due to its
defenses, it took 13 years to succeed.
573 BC. — Nebuchadnezzar finally takes the city, only to discover
that the Phoenicians had moved everything of value to an island one-half
mile off the coast. Therefore, Nebuchadnezzar took the city but did
not conquer the Phoenicians. (Prophecy #1 – fulfilled)
332 BC. — Alexander the Great, fearing an attack by the Phoenican
fleet began to assault Tyre, but was unsuccessful. He conquered other
nations in the area and used the combined forces (Prophecy #2 –
fulfilled), but the Phoenician fleet was still too much for him.
In order to avoid the naval superiority of the Phoenicians, Alexander
took the building stones and timbers from Old Tyre and built a causeway
from the mainland out to the island. (Prophecy #5 – fulfilled)
Unfortunately he did not have enough building materials to finish the
construction, so he scraped all the soil off the Old Tyre site all the
way down to the bedrock and used it to complete his causeway. (Prophecy
3– fulfilled)
After seven months of combined land and sea attack, Alexander finally
took the city. Other neighboring cities were so frightened. By Alexander’s
conquest of Tyre that they open their city gates for him without opposition.
(Prophecy #6 – fulfilled)
Today, although one of the largest freshwater springs of the area is
very near the site of Old Tyre, the city has never been rebuilt. (Prophecy
7 – fulfilled)
The large flat rocks near the coastline are currently used by area fisherman
to lay out their nets to dry. (Prophecy #4 – fulfilled)
The Conquering of Babylon
Isaiah 13:19-21, Date: 720 BC.
Jeremiah 51:26,43, Date: 600 BC.
“19
And Babylon, the beauty of kingdoms, the glory of the Chaldeans' pride,
Will be as when God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah. 20 It will never be
inhabited or lived in from generation to generation; Nor will the Arab
pitch his tent there, Nor will shepherds make their flocks lie down
there. 21 But desert creatures will lie down there, And their houses
will be full of owls, Ostriches also will live there, and shaggy goats
will frolic there.” Isaiah 13:19-21, NASB.
“26 "And they will not take
from you even a stone for a corner Nor a stone for foundations, But
you will be desolate forever," declares the LORD.”
Jeremiah 51:26, NASB.
“43 "Her cities have become
an object of horror, A parched land and a desert, A land in which no
man lives, And through which no son of man passes.” Jeremiah
51:43, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Babylon would be conquered |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 2)
It would never be inhabited again |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
Arabs will not pitch their tents there |
1
in 200 |
1
in 2 |
| 4)
There would be no sheepfolds there |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 5)
Wild beasts will occupy the ruins |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 6)
The stones will not be taken away for other buildings |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
| 7)
Men will not be taken past the ruins |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 7 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 5,000,000,000 |
1
in 128 |
Results
538 BC. — Babylon may have been one of the greatest cities ever
built. Its walls were 90 feet thick and over 300 feet high. The walls
stretched 14 miles on each side and the Uphrates river ran through the
middle of the city, ensuring a consistent water supply. There was enough
land inside the city walls to grow crops to provide food. It had no
reason to fear siege. And yet in 538 BC. It was conquered. (Prophecy
#1 – fulfilled)
Today, although Arabs will pitch their tents just about anywhere they
are very superstitious about Babylon. If you hire a guide in this region,
they will not stay there at night. (Prophecy #3 – fulfilled)
The city is desolate and not inhabited by humans at all. (Prophecy #2
– fulfilled), although jackals and other wild animals routinely
live among the ruins. (Prophecy #5 – fulfilled) Because of the
wild animals, shepperds will not allow sheepfolds near the ruins. (Prophecy
#4 – fulfilled)
Bricks and other materials have been salvaged from Babylon, but the
great stones used in the construction have never been moved. (Prophecy
#6 – fulfilled)
Although most major cities in this region are on prominent tourist routes,
Babylon is not. There is currently little or no access to the region.
(Prophecy #7 – fulfilled)
SPECIAL NOTE:
In 722 BC., 184 years before the fall of
Babylon, Isaiah revealed that a man named “Cyrus” would
take the city. This prophecy was made more than 100 years before Cyrus
was even born. So Isaiah, writing a century earlier not only predicted
the fall of Babylon accurately…he named the name of the conqueror
or as well. Enter whatever probability you believe would be close. (My
guess would be about 1 in a gajillion)
Edom
Jeremiah 49:16-18
Date: 600 BC.
“16 "As for the terror of you,
The arrogance of your heart has deceived you, O you who live in the
clefts of the rock, Who occupy the height of the hill. Though you make
your nest as high as an eagle's, I
will bring you down from there,"
declares the LORD. 17 "And Edom
will become an object of horror;
everyone who passes by it will be horrified and will hiss at all its
wounds. 18 "Like the overthrow of Sodom and Gomorrah with its neighbors,"
says the LORD, "no one will
live there, nor will a son of man
reside in it.” Jeremiah 49:16-18, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Edom would be conquered |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 2)
It would become desolate |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
It would not be reinhabited |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 3 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 10,000 |
1
in 8 |
Results
When this prophecy was made Edom was a prosperous country. Its capital
city, Petros, was hewn out of solid rock deep within a maze of canyons.
It most certainly contained the best natural defenses of any city in
the world. The ruins of this city can be seen in the final scenes of
“Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade”. The only entrance
to the city was through very narrow canyons with impassable cliffs.
It remained very prosperous until long after the time of Christ.
In 636 AD. It was conquered by the Muhammadans and from that day until
now it has been desolate and completely uninhabited.
Moab
and Ammon
Ezekiel 25:3,4,9,10, Date: 590 BC.
Jeremiah 48:47; 49:6, Date: 600 BC.
“3 and say to the sons of Ammon,
'Hear the word of the Lord GOD! Thus says the Lord GOD, "Because
you said, 'Aha!' against My sanctuary when it was profaned, and against
the land of Israel when it was made desolate, and against the house
of Judah when they went into exile, 4 therefore, behold, I am going
to give you to the sons of the
east for a possession, and they
will set their encampments among you and make
their dwellings among you; they
will eat your fruit and drink your
milk.” Ezekiel 25:3,4, NASB.
“9 therefore, behold, I am going
to deprive the flank of Moab of its cities, of its cities which are
on its frontiers, the glory of the land, Beth-jeshimoth, Baal-meon,
and Kiriathaim, 10 and I will give it for a possession, along with the
sons of Ammon, to the sons of the east, that the sons of Ammon may not
be remembered among the nations.” Ezekiel 25:9,10, NASB.
“47 "Yet I
will restore the fortunes of Moab
In the latter days," declares the LORD. Thus far the judgment on
Moab.” Jeremiah 48:47, NASB.
“6 "But afterward I
will restore The fortunes of the sons of Ammon,"
Declares the LORD.” Jeremiah 49:6, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
1)
Will be taken by men from the east,
they will eat the fruits of the land |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 2)
Men from the east will build palaces in Ammon |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
Moabites and Ammonites will eventually be returned and given their
land |
1
in 20 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 3 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 1,000 |
1
in 8 |
Results
Arabs (from the east) repeatedly raided these countries and took the
fruits of the land. They eventually drove most of the inhabitants away,
but did very little with the land. They eventually began to develop
the land and built palaces there. Within the last 100 years the British
have protected the land and have returned much of it to the native Moabite
and Ammonites.
Palestine
Leviticus 26:31-33, Date: 1400 BC.
Ezekiel 36:33-35, Date: 590 BC.
“31 'I
will lay waste your cities as well,
and will make your sanctuaries
desolate; and I will not smell your
soothing aromas. 32 'And I will
make the land desolate so that your
enemies who settle in it shall be
appalled over it. 33 'You, however,
I will scatter among the nations
and will draw out a sword after
you, as your land
becomes desolate and your cities become waste.”
Leviticus 26:31-33, NASB.
“33 'Thus says the Lord GOD, "On
the day that I cleanse you from all your iniquities, I
will cause the cities to be inhabited, and the waste places will be
rebuilt. 34 "And the desolate
land will be cultivated instead
of being a desolation in the sight of everyone who passed by. 35 "And
they will say, 'This desolate land has become like the garden of Eden;
and the waste, desolate, and ruined
cities are fortified and inhabited.'”
Ezekiel 36:33-35, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Its cities will become waste |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 2)
The sanctuaries will become desolate |
1
in 2 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
The land will become desolate |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 4)
Enemies will inhabit the land |
1
in 2 |
1
in 2 |
| 5)
The Jews would be scattered |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 6)
A sword would go out after the Jews |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 7)
The Jews will return, rebuild, and retill the land |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 7 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 200,000 |
1
in 128 |
Results
This prophecy was made shortly after the Israelites were led out of
Egypt. Their sanctuaries had been kept active throughout the wandering
in the wilderness.
The Muslims, enemies of the Jews, eventually made Palastine their stronghold.
Up until the time of this prophecy, the Jews had always remained together,
whether in Egypt, Sinai, or Palestine.
There is not much question that throughout history, the Jews have been
one of the most persecuted and scattered nations anywhere. Yet they
have slowly begun to regain control of their lands in Palestine and
are retilling the land even today.
Zion
to be plowed
Micah 3:12
Date: 750 BC.
“12 Therefore, on account of you,
Zion will be plowed
as a field, Jerusalem will become a heap of ruins, And the mountain
of the temple will become high places of a forest.” Micah
3:12, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Zion will be plowed |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of this 1 prophecy being accurate |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
Results
From the time of this prophecy to the present, parts of Jerusalem have
been destroyed and rebuilt. In 1543 however, when the walls were rebuilt
by Sultan Suleiman, that part of the city known as Zion was left outside
the city walls and today is used for planting crops. To this day, no
other part of the city has ever been plowed for crops.
Samaria
Micah 1:6
Date: 750 BC.
“6 For I will make Samaria a
heap of ruins in the open country,
Planting places for a vineyard.
I will pour her stones down into
the valley, And will lay
bare her foundations.”
Micah 1:6, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Samaria will be destroyed |
1
in 4 |
1
in 2 |
| 2)
Will become as a heap in the field |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
Vineyards will occupy the site |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
| 4)
Its stones will be poured down the sides of the hill |
1
in 10 |
1
in 2 |
| 5)
Its foundations will be dug up |
1
in 2 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 5 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 40,000 |
1
in 32 |
Results
Samaria was still a thriving city 750 years later during the time of
Christ, and is often mentioned in the New Testament. The city was finally
destroyed and became a heap of stones and debris. Gradually over time
the hill has been cleared; the foundation stones and other remains have
been taken to the edge of the hill the city was built on and rolled
down into the valley. It was plowed and is now the site a gardens and
vineyards.
Gaza
and Ashkelon
Zephaniah 2:4-6 Date: 630 BC.
Amos 1:8, Date: 787 BC.
Jeremiah 47:5, 600 BC.
“4 For Gaza will be abandoned, And
Ashkelon a desolation; Ashdod will be driven out at noon, And Ekron
will be uprooted. 5 Woe to the inhabitants of the seacoast, The nation
of the Cherethites! The word of the LORD is against you, O Canaan, land
of the Philistines; And I will
destroy you, So that there will
be no inhabitant. 6 So the seacoast
will be pastures, With caves for shepherds and folds for flocks.”
Zephaniah 2:4-6, NASB.
“8 "I will also cut off the
inhabitant from Ashdod, And him who holds the scepter, from Ashkelon;
I will even unleash My power upon Ekron, And the remnant of the Philistines
will perish," Says the Lord
GOD.” Amos 1:8, NASB.
“5 "Baldness
has come upon Gaza; Ashkelon
has been ruined. O remnant of their
valley, How long will you gash yourself?” Jeremiah 47:5,
NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Philistines to perish |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 2)
Gaza to become bald |
1
in 100 |
1
in 2 |
| 3)
Ashkelon top become desolate |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| 4)
Area of Ashkelon to become a dwelling place for shepherds |
1
in 5 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of all 4 prophecies being accurate |
1
in 12,500 |
1
in 16 |
Results
When these prophecies were made the Philistines were the most powerful
race in the country. Palestine means the land of the Philistines, but
they have completely vanished.
A city of Gaza still exists today, so for a very long time this prophecy
was believed to be wrong, or at very least unfulfilled. Finally, a careful
study was made of the location of Gaza as recorded in the Bible and
it was found that the current city of Gaza was not in the correct area.
A search was made and the old city was found buried in the sand. It
had indeed become bald. What better description of a city buried under
sand dunes than to say it had become bald.
Ashkelon was one of the great cities in Palestine when the prophecy
was written. Herod the Great embellished Ashkelon and established his
summer resort there. But in 1270 AD., Sultan Bibars destroyed it and
it has never been rebuilt. The seacoast of this area has become the
grazing place for many flocks of sheep.Today it is dotted with shepherd
huts and sheepfolds.
The
Golden Gate of Jerusalem
Ezekiel 44:1-3
Date: 574 BC.
“1 Then He brought me back by the
way of the outer gate of the sanctuary,
which faces the east; and it was shut. 2 And the LORD said to me, "This
gate shall be shut; it shall not be opened, and no one shall enter by
it, for the LORD God of Israel has
entered by it; therefore it shall be shut. 3 "As for the prince,
he shall sit in it as prince to eat bread before the LORD; he shall
enter by way of the porch of the gate, and shall go out by the same
way."” Ezekiel 44:1-3, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
The Golden Gate of Jerusalem will be closed up |
1
in 1,000 |
1
in 2 |
| Total
odds of this 1 prophecy being accurate |
1
in 1,000 |
1
in 2 |
Results
When this prophecy was written the road from the Kidron Valley entered
through this gate, called the Golden Gate. This is the gate used during
the time of Christ and is thought to be the gate through which He made
His triumphal entry into Jerusalem.
In 1543 AD., when the walls were rebuilt by Sultan Suleiman, the road
to the Golden Gate was no longer in use. The Sultan seeing no use for
it, ordered it closed, but instead of building the wall straight across,
he rebuilt the arches and ornaments then walled up the gates opening.
Jerusalem
enlarged
Jeremiah 31:39-40
Date: 600 BC.
“39 "And the measuring line
shall go out farther straight ahead to the hill Gareb; then it will
turn to Goah. 40 "And the whole valley of the dead bodies and of
the ashes, and all the fields as far as the brook Kidron, to the corner
of the Horse Gate toward the east, shall be holy to the LORD; it shall
not be plucked up, or overthrown anymore forever."”
Jeremiah 31:39,40, NASB.
| Prophecies
made: |
Odds
of accuracy |
Conceded
Odds |
| 1)
Jerusalem would expand in a particular 9 point sequence |
1
in 80,000,000,000 |
1
in 512 |
| Total
odds of this 1 prophecy being accurate |
1
in 80,000,000,000 |
1
in 512 |
Results
The first prophecy that Jerusalem would expand, then the order in which
it would expand was given. It would be pretty easy to find the number
of ways the city might grow in the first step. The old city had six
definite corners and could have grown from any one of these, or the
sides. With each successive expansion, the number of options would be
increased. Yet the Bible recorded the correct sequence hundreds of years
before the expansion was complete.
The
Total Probability
So what is the total probability that each and every one of the prophecies
listed here would come true if they were only made by man’s guesswork
and “chance”? The full odds would be 1 in 13 x 1054 or to
be more visual;1 in 13 x 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
Statisticians tell us that any event with odds of happening greater
than 1 in 1050 won’t happen.
Let’s look at just how large a number this is. If you had 1054
silver dollars and melted them down, you could make 2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
solid silver balls the size of our sun.
The best estimate we have is that there are between 1.5 million and
2 trillion galaxies in the universe each containing 100 billion stars.
1054 silver dollars would make every star in every galaxy and have some
left over. The number is truly mind-boggling.
Even if we reduce the odds to the conceded 1 in 2 chances given, the
total probability that each of these prophecies would come true would
be 1 in 140,737,000,000,000, This would be the same as secretly marking
one star out of almost 200 sextillion, blindfolding someone and giving
them one chance to touch the one you marked.
Estimates too high?
If you feel these estimates are too high…use your own. Any number
you use over 1 in 1, which would mean that a guess was right each and
every time, is going to be massive. And keep in mind that these are
just a few of the prophecies the Bible contains. There are many, many
more to add to the equation.
When were they really written?
Many might argue that these prophecies are not dated correctly and thus
could have been written after the events took place. A brief look at
the facts easily discredits this argument. All of the prophecies listed
were written in the Old Testament which was unquestionably completed
before 400 BC. Of the 47 predictions discussed, only 13 were fulfilled
in Old Testament times. All of the remaining 34 predictions were fulfilled
after the time of Christ. No one would argue that the Old Testament
wasn’t written until after the time of Christ…Jesus quoted
it quite often.
Michael
Hite is Communications Minister at the Bear Valley Church of Christ
in Denver, CO. and is also on staff at the Bear
Valley Bible Institute of Denver.
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